Wolfe Trahan Published Research » Reports

François Trahan’s Portfolio Strategy Conference Call Slides

Wolfe Trahan — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 15:29:48 +0000

Chief Investment Strategist, François Trahan, will host a 45–minute conference call discussing: A Powerful (Cyclical?) Recovery For The U.S. Economy; the Defining Moment Of The Year… A Peak In Leading Indicators!; and Risks & Opportunities In 2010 And Beyond… Mostly Risks! These are the slides from that launch call.

François Trahan’s Portfolio Strategy Outlook

Wolfe Trahan — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 13:54:40 +0000

The report, entitled “Economic Growth Accelerating, Market Running On Fumes, Policy Out Of Gas” encompasses François’ investment themes in 2010.

The five key takeaways from the report are: 1) Equity markets are already pricing in 5% GDP growth ; 2) an imminent rollover in leading indicators is set to change the equity landscape; 3) stability over cyclicality is key for portfolio selection in 2010; 4) risk/reward favors Treasury bonds over stocks; and 5) Risks in 2010 and beyond place the burden of proof in the bullish-equity camp.

State of the Freight: First Quarter

Wolfe Trahan — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 13:27:59 +0000

This 79 page report analyzes the results of over 150 shippers that filled out our third-quarter survey during mid-January. Within the report, we discuss in detail: pricing, volume, service and capacity trends across our transportation universe. The report looks at inventory restocking/destocking trends and how they could relate to demand and supply through 2010 and into 2011. Moreover, we hear directly from shippers, their thoughts and opinions on current transportation topics such as rail reregulation, LTL truck pricing in the event of an LTL bankruptcy, as well as service and list rate compliance levels with UPS and FedEx.

4Q09 Postview Slide Report: Recent Pullback Provides Solid Long Opportunities for Transports

Wolfe Trahan — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 14:53:33 +0000

This handy miniature slide report provides an easy accessible way to quickly access recent operating and financial trends out of fourth quarter reports. Slides include an updated look at recent trends in the Rail, Truck, and Airfreight & Logistics sectors as well as our updated thesis on how to make money in the transports, long and short. Also included are our updated ratings and top stock ideas.

The Wolfe Monthly Macro Watch: Strong Finish to Peak Season — What’s Next?

Wolfe Trahan — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 14:30:19 +0000

Vols across all major freight modes we track were positive y/y in their latest monthly reports. However this reflects very easy comps and only modest signs of real demand improvement, as freight continues to track well below levels seen in C07. Of the 5 major freight modes available through Dec.�Rails, Trucks, Int�l Air, West Coast Ocean Ports and Cass shipments�total vols were up 13% y/y on avg. in Dec. but down 11% compared with 2 years ago.

The Wolfe Monthly Macro Watch: Freight Continues to Suggest Gradual Recovery Theme

Wolfe Trahan — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 21:51:21 +0000

The Wolfe Monthly Macro Watch summarizes the most recently available Air, Ocean, Rail & Truck freight statistics. Each month, we track 14 series of domestic and international freight data.

The State of the Freight: Third Quarter

Wolfe Trahan — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 12:11:34 +0000

This 78 page report analyzes the results of over 150 shippers that filled out our third-quarter survey during mid-October. Within the report, we discuss in detail: pricing, volume, service and capacity trends across our transportation universe. The report looks at inventory restocking/destocking trends and how they could relate to demand and supply through 2009 and into 2010. Moreover, we hear directly from shippers, their thoughts and opinions on current transportation topics such as rail reregulation, LTL truck pricing in the event of an LTL bankruptcy, as well as service and list rate compliance levels with UPS and FedEx.

Atlas Air Worldwide Initiation: Trading Before Take-off; 747-8Fs on the Horizon

Wolfe Trahan — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 12:08:08 +0000

Atlas Air Worldwide is the leading provider of freighter aircraft and related outsourced solutions to the global airfreight industry. Currently, Atlas manages and operates the world's largest fleet of 747-400 freighters and, likely in late 2010, will become the first outsourced provider of the even larger, more fuel-efficient 747-8 freighters. As a result of adding these large, fuel-efficient planes, we expect Atlas to grow its Revenue 10%-20% and EBIT over 30% in both 2011 and 2012. Notwithstanding the placement and funding risks associated with the new aircraft, the new 747-8Fs should drive higher returns and strong positive operating leverage.

RailAmerica, Inc. Initiation: Act II Should Play Better for This Short-Line Rail

Wolfe Trahan — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:38:16 +0000

RailAmerica operates 40 short-line railroads in the U.S. and Canada and also provides related rail services such as switching, storage and maintenance. RailAmerica was public from 1992 to 2007, prior to being brought private by Fortress. During its first act as a public company, RailAmerica had a reputation of over-paying for dilutive acquisitions and generating inconsistent operating results. During its two years as a private company, RailAmerica replaced its entire senior management team with industry veterans who have helped materially reduce its cost structure and improve the consistency of its earnings and cash flows. We believe the company has several years of cost and productivity improvement remaining.

2Q Postview Slide Report: Do Transports Have Enough Operating Leverage to Continue Outperformance?

Wolfe Trahan — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 21:51:50 +0000

This handy miniature slide report provides an easy accessible way to quickly access recent operating and financial trends out of second quarter reports. Slides include an updated look at recent trends in the Rail, Truck, and Airfreight & Logistics sectors as well as our updated thesis for making money in the transports with rankings of potential operating leverage and a look at industrial vs. consumer revenue exposure by company.