Wolfe Trahan & Co. Industry Primers
The industry primer reports and rail map described below can be accessed as electronic, encrypted PDFs (except the rail map) by clicking each title below. To receive a hard copy of any of the reports, please complete the form below. We have also provided unencrypted links to a preview of the cover and Table of Contents for each report.
These reports are strictly limited to clients of Wolfe Trahan & Co.
If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access these reports, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.
Parcel Paradise
This 245-page primer report lays out our thesis for investing in the express stocks — UPS, FedEx, and TNT. We provide detailed background and market share data on the express industry, as well as histories of UPS and FedEx. We then discuss historical volume and yield trends, explore relevant regulatory/legislative issues, and review current and historical valuations and stock performance through cycles. We also lay out our thesis on why better pricing fundamentals for UPS and FedEx could be the most important drivers of their stocks over the next five years. We conclude with detailed profiles of each company and explain why we currently favor UPS over FedEx.
Fasten Your Seatbelts – Rough Road Ahead
This 438-page Auto & Truck Manufacturing industry primer explains in detail our fundamental investment thesis on the industry. It includes our proprietary survey of the trucking industry regarding equipment and capital spending plans, as well as our proprietary U.S. auto sales forecast model. The report also includes deep dives on industry economics, industry data and background, regulatory issues and trends in vehicle electrification. The next section of our report discusses our eleven individual company theses, with each company section averaging about 20 pages. We conclude the report with our universe tables, company models, and appendices further detailing our sector’s performance around ISM peaks and troughs and Fed interest rate cycles, and long-term correlations with oil prices.
A Training Manual
This report provides an in-depth overview of the railroads’ historical and current operating, financial, and regulatory trends and changes. It includes analysis of rail financial performance during past recessions, including rail volumes back to the Great Depression and rail financial and stock performance out of historical downturns. We also provide a deep dive on rail end-segment customers as well as a full analysis of railroad pricing, expenses (including an in-depth discussion on pension and labor unions and costs), capital spending and returns on capital. The report concludes with individual company reports and models for all nine public railroad companies in our coverage.
The Whole Trucking Story
This 340-page trucking industry primer provides an in-depth look at our fundamental trucking thesis, including deep dives on the macro environment, industry background, regulatory issues and pensions. This report also breaks down the TL and LTL sectors, including analysis of valuation, volume, pricing and fuel, with discussion of competition with railroads and a large LTL bankruptcy case study. The report includes our truck carrier capacity and equipment survey results, and concludes with individual company reports and models for all 11 public trucking companies in our coverage universe.
Wolfe Research Rail Map
Our updated and revised railroad map includes all of the major North American railroads as well as short-line railroads Genesee and Wyoming and RailAmerica. Our new map highlights new Rail, Coal and Ports including updates of recent track build-outs plus key lanes for each major Rail. It is available in hard copy for Wolfe Research clients by request.
