Wolfe Trahan Published Research » dohModel

Auto Sales Forecast: Interactive Model

Wolfe Trahan — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 18:50:35 +0000

Plug in your expectations for gas prices, household net worth, and vehicles per licensed driver, and the regression model projects future U.S. light vehicle sales.

UNP: Legacy Contract Repricing doh! Model

Wolfe Trahan — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 12:44:19 +0000

Plug in your assumptions for both intermodal and coal base rate increases to obtain the EPS benefit for UNP from legacy contract re-pricing alone in 2012.

CP & CNI: Export Potash doh! Model

Wolfe Trahan — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 07:00:34 +0000

Plug in your assumptions for annual Canpotex tonnage, pricing, and market share loss from CP to CNI to estimate the annualized EPS impact from the Canpotex contract up for bid in mid-2012. Out default assumptions reflect CNI gaining 25% of the business and a 10% decline in pricing from the added competition.

CGI: Buyout of USA Truck (USAK)

Wolfe Trahan — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 18:02:13 +0000

Plug in your assumptions for the debt and equity financing split, purchase multiple and revenue and margins for CGI and USAK. Default assumptions reflect a 50/50 split between debt and equity, a 5x trailing EBITDA purchase multiple ($135M equity buyout plus $114M existing USAK debt) and a USAK OR of 98.5% in 2012 implying about $0.16, or 18%, dilution to CGI’s C12 EPS.

Inside Freight: Pension Interactive doh! Model

Wolfe Trahan — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 15:30:35 +0000

Plug in assumptions for market returns, changes in discount rates, and expected return on plan assets for our transport companies affected by pensions. Full list includes CNI, CP, CSX, NSC, UNP, CNW, R, FDX, UPS, and UTIW. Default assumptions reflect disclosures from company 10-Ks and YTD market return estimates.

CSX & NSC: Export Coal Interactive doh! Model

Wolfe Trahan — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 17:58:30 +0000

Plug in expectations for 2011 and 2012 coal volumes , yields, and margins, and the model projects the impacts to consolidated EPS for each railroad.

YRCW: Revenue Share Shifts on Potential Closure Interactive doh! Model

Wolfe Trahan — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 13:10:41 +0000

Plug in your assumptions for how much of YRCW’s long-haul and regional revenue and tonnage its competitors would receive in a potential shut down scenario. Default assumptions reflect previous YRCW customer survey results.

ABFS: Wage and Pension Concession Interactive doh! Model

Wolfe Trahan — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 12:17:34 +0000

Plug in your expectations for potential hourly wage and pension concessions from ABFS’s unions and possible equity concession, and the model will project the expected cost savings and EPS impact.

Auto Sales Forecast: Interactive Model (Old)

Wolfe Trahan — Thu, 15 Apr 2010 02:54:10 +0000

Plug in your expectations for household net worth, relative new vehicle prices, lagged one-year average oil prices, and a vehicle park adjustment factor, and the model will project future annual U.S. auto sales for the next five years.

KNX: Potential Acquisition Accretion Interactive doh! Model (Old)

Wolfe Trahan — Thu, 01 Apr 2010 18:33:47 +0000

Plug in your estimates for a potential KNX acquisition of a $450 million revenue TL carrier, and the model will project the potential EPS accretion/dilution.