Ed Wolfe and Scott Group — Airfreight & Surface Transportation
Below is our Airfreight & Surface Transportation library of research listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact ITSupport@WolfeTrahan.com to request our PDF decryption plug-in.Friday Freight
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
UTIW: A Step in the Right Direction
UTIW reported F2Q (ending July) EPS of $0.19, $0.02 better than Cons. and $0.02 worse than our high-end estimate. While Gross Rev., Net Rev. and OR were 8pp, 7pp and 30bp worse than our expectations, the qtr. showed a solid step in the right direction with solid sequential improvement from F1Q and no one-time items for the first time in 3+ yrs.
On Track, Week 34 Ending August 28: Absolute Volumes Reach New Recent Peak; Y/Y Growth Decelerates Into Tougher Comp
Total Week 34 Rail vols increased 13.1% y/y, modestly decelerated from +14.6% and +14.9% the prior 2 weeks into a tougher comp. Overall vols are now tracking up 13.3% QTD about 2/3 through 3Q, above our expectations of about 10%-11% growth, although y/y comps get increasingly tough going forward. For the week, absolute vols reached their highest level since 4Q:08 and vols were down less than 4% on a 2-year stacked basis.
YRCW: Revenue Share Shifts on Potential Closure Interactive doh! Model
Plug in your assumptions for how much of YRCW’s long-haul and regional revenue and tonnage its competitors would receive in a potential shut down scenario. Default assumptions reflect previous YRCW customer survey results.
This model was previously updated on 07/10/09 and 02/10/09.
Audio Brief: Third-Quarter Shipper Survey Results
This 10-minute audio brief includes 13 slides and highlights the key takeaways from our State of the Freight: Third-Quarter Shipper Survey report. Key topics discussed include pricing, volume, service and capacity trends across all modes of freight transportation. We also consider inventory restocking trends and how they are currently driving reported freight volumes to feel much stronger than the broader economy. Moreover, we discuss the emergence of a clear dichotomy between TL capacity and pricing compared with LTL, along with accelerating rail, truckload and intermodal pricing expectations from shippers, but decelerating expectations for express/parcel, international heavy airfreight and international ocean rate increases.
State of the Freight: Third Quarter
This 70-page report analyzes the responses from nearly 150 traffic managers that filled out our third-quarter survey during July and early August. Within the report, we discuss in detail: pricing, volume, service and capacity trends across all modes of freight transportation. The report looks at inventory restocking trends and how they are currently driving reported freight volumes to feel much stronger than the broader economy. Our report also reveals a clear dichotomy between TL capacity and pricing compared with LTL. Moreover, our survey points to accelerating rail, truckload and intermodal pricing expectations from shippers, but decelerating expectations for express/parcel, international heavy airfreight and international ocean rate increases.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team’s recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 33 Ending August 21: Rail Volume Growth Holds Steady
Total Week 33 Rail vols increased 14.6% y/y, similar with +14.9% and +14.1% the prior 2 weeks. Overall vols are now tracking up 13.3% QTD more than halfway through 3Q, above our expectations of about 10%-11% growth, although y/y comps get increasingly tough going forward. On a 2-year stacked basis, vols remain down 7% vs. C08 levels.
LSTR: 3Q Mid-Quarter Update
LSTR hosted its scheduled 3Q mid-qtr. update at 2pm ET on Wed., and mgmt lowered the high end of its 3Q EPS range to $0.47-$0.50 vs. prior guidance of $0.47-$0.52 and prior Cons. of $0.51 (and our prior $0.54). LSTR also reduced the high end of its Gross Rev. range, while lower gross yields are expected to be offset by stronger cost control.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team’s recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
