Ed Wolfe and Scott Group — Airfreight & Surface Transportation
Below is our Airfreight & Surface Transportation library of research listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact ITSupport@WolfeTrahan.com to request our PDF decryption plug-in.CVTI 4Q Earnings: 4Q Loss Worse Than Expected on Weaker Utilization
CVTI reported a 4Q EPS loss of $0.15/shr., worse than our estimate of -$0.05 and Cons. of -$0.09 and down materially from +$0.05 a year ago. Rev. declined 1% y/y ( 7% net of fuel) due to weak utilization and margins deteriorated 290bp y/y. This compares with -2% net rev. and 390bp of OR deterioration in 3Q.
LSTR 4Q Earnings: Brokerage Drives Solid Quarter
LSTR reported 4Q EPS of $0.70 vs. our estimate of $0.67 and Cons. of $0.66. We estimate LSTR benefited by about $0.03 from an extra operating week in the qtr., offset by a large bad debt expense. Reported Rev., EBIT and EPS grew 22%, 42% and 40% y/y, each accelerated from 3Q.
R 4Q Earnings: Similar Trends Continue into 2012 Against Tougher Comps
R reported adjusted 4Q:11 EPS of $0.97 relative to our $0.99 and Cons. $0.96. This excludes about $0.05 of planned restructuring costs related to acquisitions, which arguably is part of being an acquisitive company. Rev, Pretax and EPS grew by 17%, 48% and 49% y/y, similar to 3Q, driven once again by strong Commercial Rental, Gains on Sales and Supply Chain Solutions.
ODFL 4Q Earnings: ODFL’s LTL Dominance Continues
ODFL beat 4Q Cons. EPS expectations by 19% yesterday as Rev., EBIT and EPS grew 22%, 67% and 76% y/y despite a very difficult comp (EPS grew 128% a year ago in 4Q). Relative to our higher-end forecasts, rev. was 100bp better and margins were 60bp better. ODFL also benefited by $0.04 from a lower than expected tax rate vs. our model.
CNW 4Q Earnings: 4Q Miss and Rising Costs Ahead
CNW reported 4Q EPS of $0.26, well below our expectation and Cons. of $0.37. Consolidated rev. growth of 7.0% decelerated modestly from +8.4% in 3Q but was nearly 300bp better than our expectations. However, OR improvement of 170bp y/y fell 70bp light of our expectations. Relative to our forecasts, LTL missed by $0.10 including a $0.06 headwind from higher retirement reserves (see below), while Menlo was $0.02 better and TL was slightly worse.
On Track, Week 4 Ending January 28: Rail Volume Growth Decelerates
Total Week 4 Rail vols increased just 1.5% y/y, decelerated from +2.0% and +6.7% the prior 2 weeks and +4.0% on avg. the past 6 weeks. Our sense is that y/y vols have been volatile so far in January due to 1) timing issues around holidays, 2) weeks with very easy comps vs. harsh winter storms a year ago, and 3) the impact of the early Chinese New Year on intermodal vols. Accordingly, we expect y/y vols to improve strongly next week vs. a very easy weather comp.
RA: Upgrading to Outperform
We have been warming to RA with expectations for improved Rev. and EPS growth the next 2 years into 1) an improving acquisition pipeline, 2) easy y/y volume and fuel comps, and 3) opportunities for significant balance sheet de-leveraging. Several of these catalysts emerged yesterday as RA announced 2 tuck-in acquisitions and a large refinancing. Combined with improving vols and its margin turnaround potential, we see material upside for RA’s EPS and stock ahead.
SAIA 4Q Earnings: Solid 4Q Report and Strong Pricing…But Rising Costs
SAIA reported 4Q EPS of $0.15, $0.01 above our estimate and Cons. Excluding about $3M or $0.12 of higher than normal claims expense, SAIA would have reported materially above our expectations. Rev. growth of 13% y/y decelerated modestly from 3Q but beat our +10% expectation, while margins improved 160bp y/y despite the higher claims expense.
UPS 4Q Earnings: Strong Domestic Results Continue on Improved Volumes
Despite a $0.05 drag from a higher than expected tax rate, UPS reported 4Q EPS of $1.28 vs. our estimate of $1.29 and prior Cons. of $1.26. EBIT and EPS grew 17% and 21% y/y, both accelerated from 3Q. Relative to our expectations, rev. growth of 5.5% was 270bp worse, while OR improvement of 140bp y/y was 90bp better.
CHRW 4Q Earnings: Disappointing Net Revenue Growth Continues
CHRW reported 4Q EPS of $0.67, $0.01 below Cons. with slower net rev. growth partially offset by strong cost control and about a $0.02 combined benefit from a lower tax rate, higher investment income and a lower share count. Net Rev., EBIT and EPS grew 3%, 5% and 7% y/y, materially decelerated from +11%, +11% and +12% in 3Q and well below CHRW’s long-term 15% targets.
