Wolfe Trahan Published Research

EXPD: Few Surprises from Mundane 8-K Update

Wolfe Trahan — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 14:10:09 +0000

EXPD released its 1st 8-K with answers to investor questions in over 6 months. There was surprisingly little new information including nothing about Feb. trends, and little clarification on 4Q results or directional guidance, but rather mostly big picture thoughts on the economy, gross yields and their model.

François Trahan’s Portfolio Strategy Launch Conference Call Replay

Wolfe Trahan — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 15:30:59 +0000

Chief Investment Strategist, François Trahan, hosted a 45–minute conference call discussing: A Powerful (Cyclical?) Recovery For The U.S. Economy; the Defining Moment Of The Year… A Peak In Leading Indicators!; and Risks & Opportunities In 2010 And Beyond… Mostly Risks!

François Trahan’s Portfolio Strategy Conference Call Slides

Wolfe Trahan — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 15:29:48 +0000

Chief Investment Strategist, François Trahan, will host a 45–minute conference call discussing: A Powerful (Cyclical?) Recovery For The U.S. Economy; the Defining Moment Of The Year… A Peak In Leading Indicators!; and Risks & Opportunities In 2010 And Beyond… Mostly Risks! These are the slides from that launch call.

François Trahan’s Portfolio Strategy Outlook

Wolfe Trahan — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 13:54:40 +0000

The report, entitled “Economic Growth Accelerating, Market Running On Fumes, Policy Out Of Gas” encompasses François’ investment themes in 2010.

The five key takeaways from the report are: 1) Equity markets are already pricing in 5% GDP growth ; 2) an imminent rollover in leading indicators is set to change the equity landscape; 3) stability over cyclicality is key for portfolio selection in 2010; 4) risk/reward favors Treasury bonds over stocks; and 5) Risks in 2010 and beyond place the burden of proof in the bullish-equity camp.

UPS: U.S. Postal Service Impact Interactive doh! Model

Wolfe Trahan — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 14:22:40 +0000

Plug in your estimates for USPS market share losses across domestic air, ground and international market competitive products then how that could split between FDX and UPS to see the potential EPS impact for each company.

UPS: Share Repurchase Accretion Interactive doh! Model

Wolfe Trahan — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 14:21:25 +0000

Plug in your revenue and OR assumptions for the next three years and see the potential impact to cash flow and potential share repurchases, the model will project the corresponding EPS accretion.

CSX: Reflections on Meetings with Management

Wolfe Trahan — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 13:56:25 +0000

Last week, we hosted meetings with CSX senior mgmt. Mgmt remains upbeat and now expects positive y/y vols in all segments and strong margin improvement. CSX attributed its improved outlook to improving domestic and export coal fundamentals, continued firm pricing and expectations for strong op. leverage.

UPS: Reflections on Meetings with Management

Wolfe Trahan — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 13:55:41 +0000

We recently hosted meetings with UPS’s IR team. Our sense is UPS is likely to beat our unchanged, modestly above Cons. ongoing 1Q EPS estimate of $0.58, driven by continued strength out of Asia and inventory restocking. UPS seems more focused on yield mgmt than we have seen from them in several years with its incentive structure moving towards yields and away from vols as part of its upcoming restructuring. Incremental cash flow could be applied to share repurchases worth $0.20-$0.30 annually.

CNW: Reflections on Meetings with Management

Wolfe Trahan — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 13:26:47 +0000

Last week, we hosted meetings with CNW. Our sense is that vols continue to gradually improve, while pricing in LTL and TL has bottomed and should rebound slowly throughout the year. Generally, mgmt was more upbeat on trends at TL and Menlo than LTL.

Friday Freight

Wolfe Trahan — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 18:15:49 +0000

This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team’s recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.