Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team’s recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
UACL 4Q Earnings: Another Unexciting Quarter
UACL reported 4Q EPS of $0.11 vs. Cons. $0.12 and down from $0.20 a year ago. Adjusting for a higher tax rate, the qtr. was in line with Cons. and arguably a few cents better removing some one-time costs. Relative to our low-end expectations, UACL reported about 3.5pp better revenue and 40bp of better margin.
On Track, Week 7 Ending February 20: Rail Volume Growth Returns
Total Week 7 Rail vols increased +7.3% y/y vs. -2.2% and +5.6% the prior 2 weeks. Total vols were up 4% sequentially, as the network began to operate a bit smoother following severe winter storms. We suspect today’s storms could cause further shutdowns and delays so vols are likely to remain choppy week to week within an upward trend into easing comps and gradually improving demand. Through the first 6 weeks of the year, vols are tracking up 3.3% QTD vs. our expectations of +4.2% in 1Q.
AAWW 4Q Earnings: Well Positioned for C10 out of 4Q Report!
AAWW reported 4Q Con’t. EPS 35% above recently upwardly revised Cons. (75% above Cons. prior to 2/4 upside pre-report). Upside was driven by strong peak season demand and tight air capacity which led to strong charter pricing, above minimum block hour flying in ACMI for the first time in 5 qtrs and continued strong AMC (military) demand.
RA 4Q Earnings: Another Noisy, Downside Quarter
RA reported ongoing EPS of about $0.01 (removing $0.24 of non-recurring charges), below our $0.07 estimate and Cons. of $0.10, and compared with +$0.15 a year ago. On an operating basis normalizing the tax rate it was more like $0.04 before unusually low casualty expense which added about $0.03 to EPS vs our expectation.
EXPD 4Q Earnings: EXPD Beats Low Expectations, But Stock Again Feels Ahead of Itself
EXPD reported seemingly clean 4Q EPS of $0.32, above Cons. of $0.28 but down from $0.36 a year ago. EXPD beat our expectations on higher gross airfreight rev. and modestly better net OR (costs), while gross yield compression was generally in line with our expectations. Net rev., EBIT and EPS declined 8%, 7% and 11% y/y in 4Q, each materially improved from 3Q.
TNT 4Q Earnings: Mostly In Line; Few Surprises
TNT reported 4Q EPS of €0.55 vs. our and Cons. €0.51 estimates and €0.55 a year ago. Excluding a €0.03 benefit from a lower tax rate, the quarter was generally in line. By segment, Mail was slightly better than we expected while Express was slightly worse. Trends generally inflected positive y/y as Rev., EBIT and EPS grew 0.5%, 2.2% and 1.5% vs. -7.6%, -12.0% and -9.1% y/y in 3Q.
FDX F3Q Preview: Raising Estimates on Continued Strong Freight Trends
FDX is scheduled to report F3Q (Feb. qtr.) on March 18. We suspect there is solid potential upside to Cons. of $0.70 and mgmt’s guidance range of $0.50-$0.70 based on: continued strong freight vols above seasonality, upbeat commentary from UPS and AAWW on Dec. and Jan. trends, and continued strong op. leverage at FDX to gradually improving vols.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team’s recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
Inside Freight: Coal Fundamentals for the Rails Nearing a Bottom
Rail coal vols are tracking down 10% QTD 6 weeks into the year vs. all other non-coal vols tracking up 7% QTD. Fundamentals for rail utility coal vols remain very weak into very high stockpiles following benign weather a year ago, lower electricity demand and switching to cheap natural gas. Utility stockpiles peaked above 200M tons in Nov., ~40% above historical averages.
