Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
ABFS 4Q Earnings: Deeper Bottom Than Expected Provides Bigger Potential Opportunity
ABFS reported before the market Thurs an ongoing EPS loss of $0.88 vs. our -$0.47 and Cons. -$0.30, after a previously announced non-cash Goodwill write-down down of -$2.55 and a pension settlement expense of $0.11/share. ABFS has struggled with a 4% annual union wage increase into down pricing, fuel surcharge and tonnage during C09.
ODFL 4Q Earnings: Best in Class Results Yet Again
While Rev, EBIT and EPS remained down, each improved materially y/y from 3Q. ODFL's reported 93.9% OR is likely to be at the top of the public LTL sector in 4Q for the 4th straight qtr. Relative to our expectations, ODFL beat both our Rev. decline and OR estimates although it benefited by roughly $0.03 from arguably a non-ongoing actuarial insurance adjustment.
HUBG 4Q Earnings: Modest Upside Driven by Strong Volumes and Cost Controls, But Tight Yields
HUBG reported $0.26 vs. our $0.25 and Cons. $0.24. Gross Rev., EBIT and EPS each declined by 5%, 33% and 30% but were materially improved from -24%, -42% and -42% y/y in 3Q. The upside to our estimate was generally driven by strong cost control once again, and almost a penny from a lower tax rate. Mgmt confirmed the current range of analyst EPS forecasts of $1.00-$1.15 for C10.
CP 4Q Earnings: Solid Quarter, But Cost Pressures Rising
CP reported ongoing 4Q EPS of C$0.94 vs. our estimate and Cons. of C$0.88. On an operating basis, CP’s report was more in line with our expectation as it benefited by C$0.05 from a lower than expected tax rate. Rev., EBIT and EPS declined by 16%, 16% and 18% y/y, each improved from -20%, -21% and -28% during 3Q.
KSU 4Q Earnings: Upside Report and Upbeat Call
KSU reported a clean $0.33 EPS yesterday, above Cons. of $0.29 and our $0.30 estimate. Relative to our expectations, KSU beat on slightly better Rev. and better margins. Rev., EBIT and EPS changed by -4%, +1% and -19% y/y, each materially improved from -21%, -29% and -55% during 3Q. KSU was the only rail to show y/y EBIT growth in 4Q, aided by a relatively easier fuel comp.
KNX 4Q Earnings: Another Quarter In Line with Low Expectations
KNX reported $0.16 EPS for 4Q, in line with Cons. and $0.01 below our expectation. Rev., EBIT and EPS declined by 4%, 22% and 18% y/y compared to -17%, -21% and -16% y/y in 3Q. Despite a surge of freight late in the qtr., KNX reported very similar results to 3Q as easier vol. comps were offset by con't weak pricing.
LSTR 4Q Earnings: Better Revenues Overshadowed by Costs
LSTR reported after the market EPS of $0.37, below Cons. $0.41 and our $0.42. Despite better than expected rev. (+$0.02) and tax rate (half cent) versus our expectation, OR was 110bp worse than our expectation, mostly driven by higher insurance costs which have been known to bite LSTR from time to time.
WERN 4Q Earnings: WERN Continues to Outperform Its Peers
WERN reported after the market yesterday $0.25 EPS, $0.01 above our and Cons. expectations. The upside relative to our estimate was driven by better than expected costs and VAS Operating Ratio, with Rev. decline of 10% in line with our expectation. Rev., EBIT and EPS changed -10%, 0% and -4% y/y, each improved from -27%, -14% and -16% y/y in 3Q.
JBHT 4Q Earnings: Unexciting, In-Line Report
JBHT reported in line with Cons. of $0.32 and a penny above our forecast. Rev. was flat y/y, while EBIT and EPS declined 18% and 17%, each improved from -16%, -33% and -34% during 3Q. Relative to our expectations, Rev. was better and margins were in line. Intermodal beat our expectations by $0.02, while Truck missed by $0.01. Dedicated was slightly worse offset by Logistics (ICS), slightly better.
