Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.Farewell to 2009 Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
YRCW: YRCW Completes Tender Offer
YRCW announced that it had reached the minimum threshold to complete its debt for equity exchange as 70% ($105M) of the aggregate amount outstanding of USF notes and 94% ($365M) of the outstanding CoCos agreed to tender. As a result of the successful tender YRCW is now able to defer $19M of 4Q interest payments in addition to access to $106M of its revolver reserves with another $53.8M accessible with 2/3rds lender approval.
On Track, Week 51 Ending December 26: Rail Volumes Remain Strongly Positive During Holiday Week
Total Week 51 Rail vols increased 10.9% y/y vs. +4.7% and -6.4% the prior 2 weeks. While Christmas occurred this week both this year and in the year-ago period, there can still be significant volatility during holiday weeks. Total vols are now tracking down 7.4% QTD with 1 week remaining, sharply improved from -17.0% during 3Q and -16.2% YTD.
Festivus Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 50 Ending December 19: Rail Volumes Inflect Positive for First Time in a Year
Total Week 50 Rail vols increased 4.7% y/y, sharply improved from -6.4% and -5.7% the prior 2 weeks on a much easier comp. Recall that rail vols dropped sharply after Thanksgiving a year ago. Vols also increased 2.9% sequentially this week, much better than seasonally normal, likely helped by some catch-up vols following bad weather in the Midwest the prior week.
SAIA: Private Placement and Downside Pre-Report – We Still Like the Stock!
SAIA announced it completed a 2.3M share private placement that will net ~$24M to be used for debt repayments. The deal priced at $11.50, or 21% below the prior day's close and is 17% dilutive to share count (see our EPS reductions below). While a steep price to pay, SAIA received covenant relief through 1Q:11 as part of the deal.
Audio Brief: Rail Regulatory Update
In this 7-minute Audio Brief webcast, we highlight our latest takeaways and expectations for the Rails following the unanimous vote from the Senate Commerce Committee on Thursday in favor of the STB Reauthorization Act.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
YRCW: The Jig May Be Up – Reiterate Aggressive Purchasing of Other LTL's
YRCW filed an amended prospectus for its proposed equity swap pushing out its tender date to Dec. 23rd. The tone of the filing was dire with YRCW bluntly stating that its liquidity position is declining and that it could have to file bankruptcy by year end if the swap does not pass and it can't generate external financing.
FDX F2Q Earnings: Improving Economy + Strong Seasonality = Upside Report
FDX reported F2Q (Nov. qtr.) EPS of $1.10, in line with its Dec. 7 upside pre-report which at the time was 29% above Cons and compared to $1.58 a year ago. The report included a one-time $0.05 insurance-related benefit. Generally, improving vols and weak pricing continued.
