Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.UTIW: UTIW F3Q Preview…Lowering Estimates
UTIW is scheduled to report F3Q on Thurs, Dec. 3rd. We have updated our model to reflect improving global air and ocean volumes vs. F2Q but tightening underlying capacity pricing. As a result we have reduced Gross Yields and Net Revenue.
Black Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
CNI: Bracing for a Strike
CNI announced that its TCRC members plan to strike after midnight this Saturday morning. The TCRC represents 1,614 locomotive engineers in Canada or roughly 8% of CNI's total workforce. If a strike occurs, CNI's other union members are legally required to cross the picket lines.
On Track, Week 46 Ending November 21: Y/Y Rail Volumes Continue to Improve
Total Week 46 Rail vols declined 5.5% y/y, improved from -7.7% and -10.2% the prior 2 weeks. This marks the best y/y week for rail vols in over a year, as comps continue to ease. Total vols are now tracking down 11.0% QTD vs. -17.0% in 3Q. Vols also increased 1.7% sequentially to their highest level of the year, but absolute vols should begin to decline into the end of the peak shipping season and holiday shutdowns. Assuming normal seasonality, y/y vols appear on track to inflect positive in late 4Q or early 1Q:10.
UPS: UPS Announces High End List Rate Increases, Will They Stick this Time?
UPS announced a Ground list rate increase of 4.9% and Dom. and Int'l Air increases of 6.9% (4.9% net of a 2pp fuel index reduction), effective January 4th. The announced increases are below last year's Ground list increase of 5.9%, but still at the high end of historical increases, while Air increases are in line with the past 3 years, but 100bp above the increase FDX previously announced for January.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
Conference Call: 3Q Postview – Transports Likely to Consolidate Gains into 2010 Before Catalysts Emerge
Ed Wolfe hosted this 35-minute conference call in which we updated our thesis on how to make money in the transports, including our updated ratings and top stock ideas; identified upcoming potential catalysts for the transports and how to position ahead of them; reviewed pricing, volume and cost trends out of 3Q:09 and through October for our Rail, Trucking and Airfreight & Logistics sub-sectors; discussed recent shipper expectations for Rail, Intermodal and LTL pricing during 2010; and looked at current vs. historical valuations, and Consensus EPS expectations for 2010 in a gradual (not V-shaped) recovery with weak pricing likely through at least 1H:10.
On Track, Week 45 Ending November 14: Y/Y Rail Volumes Improve Across the Board
Total Week 45 Rail vols declined 7.7% y/y, less worse than -10.2% and -12.2% the prior 2 weeks and -17.0% during 3Q as y/y comps continue to ease. Vols also increased 0.6% sequentially on the week, modestly better than seasonally normal. Reported y/y vols should continue to trend less worse as comps continue to ease, but absolute vols should begin declining as peak season comes to an end.
Atlas Air Worldwide Initiation: Trading Before Take-off; 747-8Fs on the Horizon
Atlas Air Worldwide is the leading provider of freighter aircraft and related outsourced solutions to the global airfreight industry. Currently, Atlas manages and operates the world's largest fleet of 747-400 freighters and, likely in late 2010, will become the first outsourced provider of the even larger, more fuel-efficient 747-8 freighters. As a result of adding these large, fuel-efficient planes, we expect Atlas to grow its Revenue 10%-20% and EBIT over 30% in both 2011 and 2012. Notwithstanding the placement and funding risks associated with the new aircraft, the new 747-8Fs should drive higher returns and strong positive operating leverage.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
