Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel
On Track, Week 42 Ending October 24: Rail Volume Declines Moderate Further
Total Week 42 Rail vols declined 12.8% y/y, less worse than -13.8% and -14.1% the prior 2 weeks. This week's performance was improved from -13.5% over the past 6 weeks and -17.0% during 3Q as y/y comps continue to ease. We expect y/y vols to appear less worse throughout the balance of the year, as comps continue to ease going forward.
KSU 3Q Earnings: In Line with High Expectations
KSU reported $0.27 EPS yesterday morning (vs. our and Cons. $0.24 and $0.52 a year ago). On an operating basis, adjusting for one-time benefits in Purchased Services, D&A and Interest Expense, we believe the qtr. was more like $0.25. KSU beat both our Rev. and OR assumptions, while interest and tax rate were worse than expected.
CLDN F1Q Earnings: Another Difficult Quarter Despite Better Growth
CLDN reported F1Q:10 (Sept) EPS of $0.03 vs. $0.13 a year ago, below Cons $0.06 but above our -$0.01 est. On an operating basis prior to a bigger than expected Other Income drag and higher tax rate, the quality of the qtr was arguably closer to $0.05 or $0.06. Relative to our low-end expectation CLDN beat both our Revenue and OR projections.
NSC 3Q Earnings: Modest Beat, Solid Pricing – Upgrading to Outperform
NSC reported 3Q EPS of $0.81, modestly above Cons. of $0.78 and our $0.79. Rev., EBIT and EPS declined by 29%, 37% and 40%, each improved y/y from -33%, -44% and -47% during 2Q:09.
Inside Freight: Raising Rail Sector to Market Overweight and UNP, NSC to Outperform. Reiterate Outperform Ratings on KSU and GWR
The 6 large-cap rails reported 3% above Cons. on average. Yet the group is down 9% over the past 2 weeks since the day after CSX reported first on Oct. 13.
CP 3Q Earnings: Solid Cost Control, But Stock Still Seems Ahead of Itself
CP reported a slight beat in U.S. dollars and a slightly higher EPS beat on a CAD basis. EBIT and U.S. EPS dropped 21% and 33% y/y, each improved from 2Q. Relative to our expectations, higher Rev. and better margin each added $0.03 while lower other income/interest expense and better FX added $0.02.
UACL 3Q Earnings: UACL Misses Low Expectations
UACL reported $0.11 Con't 3Q EPS vs. Cons. $0.12, our $0.13 and compared to $0.35 in 3Q:08. UACL missed both our Rev. and OR expectations, as the PACR acquisition provided less Rev. than we expected. Rev., EBIT and EPS declined by 40%, 67% and 68% y/y in 3Q, nearly identical to 2Q y/y.
SAIA 3Q Earnings: Upside Report, But LTL Environment Worsening
SAIA reported $0.24 3Q EPS vs. our $0.20 and Cons. $0.02 as Rev., EBIT and EPS changed -19%, +3% and +11% vs. -21%, -104% and -137% in 2Q. Earnings were boosted by $6M ($0.29) in savings from wage and benefit cuts and $8M ($0.42) from a change in vacation accruals. SAIA also benefited $0.03 from a lower tax rate offset by $0.01 due to a higher share count than our expectations.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel
