Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.Inside Freight: Takeaways From Tour of the Port of NY/NJ
Wolfe Research hosted a tour of the Port of NY/NJ and met with representatives from CSX, Hanjin Shipping (major ocean carrier), Maher Terminals (terminal operator) and Cal Cartage (private drayage firm). We present our key takeaways from the meetings below.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel
On Track, Week 37 Ending September 19: Rail Volumes Less Worse on Easy Hurricane Comp
Total Week 37 Rail vols declined 11.0% y/y, sharply improved from -22.2% the prior 2 weeks combined and -17.1% QTD. We note a very easy comp as vols were down 7.4% a year-ago due to Hurricanes Ike and Gustav. Comps will remain easy for 1 more week. Still, there continue to be signs of improving demand entering peak shipping season, with absolute vols this week at their highest level of the year.
YRCW: Stock Continues Run on Capitalization Expectations
YRCW's stock was up 35% yesterday on 42M shares traded. Our sense is lately the stock has been driven mostly by greater conviction that an equity offering and/or debt for equity swap are likely in the near future and the increasing belief that YRCW's banks will continue to keep them alive. The massive vol traded is indicative that this stock is now likely controlled by the arbs and not just short covering.
Inside Freight: Coal and Regulatory Update – Near Term Headwinds Could Create Buying Opportunity
Rail coal vols — arguably the rails' best margin business — are tracking down 13% QTD in 3Q, the only segment we track that is trending worse in 3Q than YTD. While other segments have bottomed and are showing signs of life, we expect coal vols to lag well into C10. We forecast coal vols to decline by 3% on avg. for the U.S. large-cap rails during C10, which we do not believe is reflected in Cons.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel
FDX F1Q:10 Earnings: No Surprises – FDX Reports Inline with Pre-Report
FDX reported F1Q (Aug. qtr.) EPS of $0.58, inline with its upside 9/11 pre-report and compared to $1.23 a year ago. Operating Income was spot on with our expectation, and the qtr. was clean. Mgmt. also confirmed recent guidance range of $0.65-$0.95 for F2Q, but did not provide annual guidance.
On Track, Week 36 Ending September 12: Rail Volumes Continue to Improve
Total Week 36 Rail vols declined 22.2% y/y, but we note that Labor Day occurred in Week 36 this year but in the prior week a year ago. Combining the past 2 weeks, total Rail vols declined 14.4% y/y, less worse than -16.5% and -17.3% the prior 2 weeks and -17.7% QTD. We also note an easy comp this week (and the next 2) around Hurricanes Ike and Gustav last year.
Inside Freight: LTL Update: YRCW, SAIA, CNW, ABFS, ODFL
YRCW's stock is up 77% since its Sept 1 Credit Amendment announcement relative to our LTL index excluding it and the S&P 500 up 4% and 5% during that period. Our sense is the stock has been driven mostly by short covering into: (1) improving market and economic sentiment generally fueling a return to high risk/high potential return names; (2) an increasing belief that YRCW's banks have no interest in letting YRCW die; and (3) speculation about a debt for equity swap, equity offering or even potential DOT bond bailout.
CHRW: Reflections on Meetings With Management
Last week we met with CHRW's senior Mgmt. team. Mgmt. seemed upbeat in the current env't, which clearly has bottomed and continues to expect a long-term Net Rev. and EPS growth rate for the company in the 15% range, assuming a normalized GDP over the long term.
