Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel
On Track, Week 33 Ending August 22: Rail Volume Declines Moderate Slightly
Total Week 33 Rail vols declined 17.3% y/y, less worse than -19.1% and -17.9% the prior 2 weeks. Vols are tracking down 18.8% QTD, improved from -21.8% during 2Q and -19.4% YTD. Vols increased 0.5% seq. this week (after +1.6% and -1.3% the prior 2 weeks), with a 4% increase in coal vols offset partially by a 6% drop in auto vols. Absolute vols are back to their highest level since February.
FDX: Upgrading to Outperform: How High Can the Stock Fly?
We are upgrading FDX from Under to Outperform, and materially raising our EPS estimates as we expect FDX to benefit from (1) high-end operating leverage into modestly improving dom. and global vol trends; (2) roughly $0.77 annual EPS from wage and benefit reductions; (3) roughly $0.24 annual EPS benefit in Freight from YRCW's expected bankruptcy; and (4) low Cons. expectations relative to implied guidance.
Inside Freight: Small-Cap Rails KSU and GWR: Two Stocks with Catalysts
We favor GWR and KSU for their high-end industrial exposure and catalysts outside of a U.S. economic recovery–impending acquisitions for GWR and above market op. leverage from Mexico and a cash flow inflection for KSU. Currently these are our only 2 Outperform rated rail stocks (ex. PACR) as after over a year of favoring the larger cap names over these, valuations and the proximity of these catalysts have led to our inversion.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 32 Ending August 15: Rail Volumes Remain in Historically Weak Range
Total Week 32 Rail vols declined 19.1% y/y, roughly in line with -17.9% and -18.4% the prior 2 weeks, but improved from -21.8% during 2Q and in line with -19.1% YTD. Vols increased 1.6% sequentially, with a 10% increase in auto vols offset partially by a 3% drop in coal vols. Total vols are now back at their highest level since February.
YRCW: Liquidation Value Interactive doh! Model
Plug in your estimates for YRCW's average tractor, trailer and facility values, as well as liquidation periods and discount rates to estimate a present value of YRCW's assets in a potential liquidation scenario.
YRCW: A Closer Look at YRCW's Capital Structure
The WSJ recently reported $84B of distressed merger and acquisition deals YTD, up from $20B in C08, including a variety of bankruptcies, restructurings, recapitalizations or liquidations. Dealogic reports 140 such deals already in C09 versus 102 in C08, and we have received several incoming calls recently inquiring about possibilities at YRCW.
The State of the Freight: Second Quarter
This 80+ page report analyzes the results of over 150 shippers that filled out our second-quarter survey during mid-July. Within the report, we discuss in detail: pricing, volume, service and capacity trends across our transportation universe. The report looks at inventory restocking/destocking trends and how they could relate to demand and supply through 2009 and into 2010. Moreover, we hear directly from shippers, their thoughts and opinions on current transportation topics such as rail reregulation, LTL truck pricing in the event of an LTL bankruptcy, as well as service and list rate compliance levels with UPS and FedEx.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
