Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 29 Ending July 25: Grain Volumes Less Worse; Auto Vols Improve Sequentially
Total Week 29 Rail vols declined 18.0% y/y, improved from declines of 19.7% and 21.4% the prior 2 weeks. This also compares with -21.8% during 2Q and -19.6% YTD. Vols increased another 2.6% sequentially (after +3.9% last week), led by autos and coal.
KSU 2Q Earnings: Another Weak Quarter But Bullish Conference Call
KSU reported 2Q EPS of $0.07, below Cons. of $0.10 but above our $0.04 estimate. This includes about a $0.05 FX gain and a $0.05 one-time net casualty reduction benefit, offset by about a $0.04 legal payment in Mexico. Rev., EBIT and EPS declined by 30%, 59% and 87% y/y, compared with -23%, -42% and -100% during 1Q.
CP 2Q Earnings: Large Beat Driven by Strong Cost Control
CP reported ongoing 2Q EPS of $0.47, well above Cons. $0.32 and our $0.23. On a CAD basis, con't EPS of C$0.56 crushed Cons. of C$0.34 and our C$0.28. Freight Rev. was down 24% y/y (-31% FX adjusted), while EBIT dropped 24% and EPS was down 42% (-51% in USD). We estimate CP benefitted y/y in 2Q by about $0.42 and $0.02 from fuel and FX, mostly in line with our projections.
YRCW 2Q Earnings: More of the Same, Weak Ops and Forgiving Banks
YRCW's long-haul and regional tonnage dropped -40% and -26% in 2Q:09 vs the avg of the other 6 public LTLs we cover who reported -12%. Our sense is similar y/y tonnage declines continued through July.
GWR 2Q Earnings: Unexciting Quarter
GWR reported a noisy qtr. in line with our and Cons. estimates and the low end of its prior pre-report range. Excluding a lower than expected tax rate and higher gains on sales in Other Income, GWR missed our EBIT estimate by about $0.03-$0.04. Rev., EBIT and EPS declined by 15%, 20% and 20%, down sharply from -2%, +25% and +23% during 1Q.
NSC 2Q Earnings: Another In-Line
Excluding a $0.04 one-time tax benefit, NSC reported 2Q EPS of $0.63, a penny below Cons. but above our estimate of $0.58. Rev, EBIT and EPS declined by 33%, 44% and 47%, each further deteriorated y/y from -22%, -35% and -39% during 1Q:09.
TNT 2Q Earnings: Upside 2Q Report Driven by Costs and Cash Flow
TNT reported cont. EPS of Euro0.28 vs. our Euro0.25 estimate and vs. Euro0.56 a year ago. Rev., EBIT and EPS (including the negative FX and Easter impact), declined -10%, -38% and -50% y/y vs. -10%, -44% and -57% y/y in 1Q. Overall Rev. was 1pp and OR 40bp less worse than we expected.
Ryder: Used Truck Residual Interactive doh! Model
Plug in your expectation for the next six quarters' following Ryder's 2Q:09 earnings used truck pricing and the model projects the impact on five-year average depreciated residual values.
This model was previously updated on 09/08/08.
SAIA 2Q Earnings: Unlike CNW, Losses Continue Despite Market Share Gains and Salary Cuts
SAIA reported -$0.13 2Q EPS vs our -$0.16, Cons. -$0.09 and +$0.36 in 2Q:08. Rev. declined -21% y/y vs -17% in 1Q:09 and EBIT swung to a $0.4M loss from an $11M profit in 2Q:08, after inflecting negative in 1Q:09. Better than expected Rev was offset by higher insurance and PT costs, while savings from wage cuts resulted in a lower salaries exp as a % of Rev.
