Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 20 Ending May 23: Rail Volumes Slightly Less Worse
Total Week 20 Rail vols declined 22.5% y/y, less worse than -24.2% and -25.1% the prior 2 weeks. Vols are now down -23.1% QTD vs. -17.2% during 1Q:09. Freight demand across the spectrum remains terrible with limited signs of recovery.
Conference Call: 1Q:09 Postview & Conference Recap – Are The Transports Setting Up for Another Second Half Swoon?
Wolfe Research hosted this conference call in which we highlighted our expectations for weakened truck and intermodal pricing out of record bid activity during 1Q. We also highlighted the importance of pricing over volumes (see our slide comparing 1Q reports for UPS vs. UNP), which combined with tough fuel headwinds, should make for very difficult EPS comparisons for the asset-based transports in 2H:09, even with a potential rebound in volumes. During our call, we also discussed recent freight trends, takeaways from our transport conference, transports as leading indicators, and our top stock ideas in the space.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 19 Ending May 16: Rail Volumes Remain Sharply Negative
Total Week 19 Rail vols declined 24.2% y/y, compared to -25.1% and -22.2% the prior 2 weeks. Vols are now down -23.5% QTD vs. -17.2% during 1Q:09. Freight trends across the spectrum remain terrible with no signs of any recovery.
Inside Freight: Day 2 Conference Takeaways – Rails and Airfreight & Logistics
Day 2 of our Transport Conference focused on Rails and Express carriers and Freight Forwarders. Not surprising given weekly reported vols, the Rails were less upbeat than the truck carriers generally, and int'l vols seem somewhere in the middle.
The State of the Freight: First Quarter 2009
This 80 page report analyzes the results of over 150 shippers that filled out our first-quarter survey during the mid April time frame. Within the report, we discuss in detail pricing, volume, service and capacity trends across our transportation universe. The report looks at hotly debated inventory restocking/destocking trends and how it could relate to demand and supply through 2009 and into 2010. Moreover, we hear directly from shippers, their insider thoughts and opinions on current transportation topics such as rail reregulation, truck spot market pricing, as well as service and compliance levels with UPS and FDX.
Inside Freight: Day 1 Conference Takeaways
18 public and private TL, LTL and Intermodal carriers presented at Day 1 of our Transport Conference. As highlighted in the exhibit below, 8 carriers noted that y/y trends were less worse (or better) in April/May compared with 1Q:09. Five noted that y/y vols are tracking worse than 1Q, while 4 noted similar y/y trends and HUBG had no comment. The largest providers generally have not seen an uptick. Our sense is that after record Truck bids in 1Q, there have been some significant market shifts, as some carriers were more aggressive in seeking vols. In this short note, we present some brief highlights from yesterday's presentations including our dinner with UNP mgmt.
A Training Manual
This report provides an in-depth overview of the railroads’ historical and current operating, financial, and regulatory trends and changes. It includes analysis of rail financial performance during past recessions, including rail volumes back to the Great Depression and rail financial and stock performance out of historical downturns. We also provide a deep dive on rail end-segment customers as well as a full analysis of railroad pricing, expenses (including an in-depth discussion on pension and labor unions and costs), capital spending and returns on capital. The report concludes with individual company reports and models for all nine public railroad companies in our coverage.
Inside Freight: Crib Notes from BNI and CNW Dinners…
A Tale of Two Dinners: We hosted 2 dinners to kick off our conference – CNW and BNI. While CNW management was very upbeat about its recent market wins and improving (less worse) tonnage, BNI was much more somber, seeing few signs of improvement and noting at best, that things appear to have flattened out.
