Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.UTIW: The First 100 Days – Reflections on Meetings with Management
We recently hosted marketing meetings with new CEO Eric Kirchner, CFO Lawrence Samuels and Dir. of IR Jeff Misakian. Mgmt. was eager to discuss its current cost reduction plan and initiatives to further streamline and cross sell CL operations. We sense that Mgmt. remains focused on righting the ship operationally and not on major strategic changes.
GWR 1Q Earnings: In-Line Quarter; Few Catalysts
GWR reported 1Q:09 EPS of $0.38, a penny above Cons. and our estimate. GWR missed our EBIT expectation, but benefitted by about $0.02 vs. our model from lower interest expense and $0.01 from a lower tax rate. Rev., EBIT and EPS changed by -2%, +25% and +23% vs. +11%, +22% and -2% during 4Q:08. Generally, revenues were light driven by lower yields, while OR and costs were better than our expectations.
CLDN F3Q Earnings: CLDN Misses Expectations on Mexico and Cost Side
CLDN reported a loss of ($0.10)/shr, vs. our est of ($0.01) and Cons. ($0.03). Rev declined -23% (-15% net fuel) and both EBIT and EPS inflected from profits to losses. We estimate CLDN benefited y/y by about $0.10 from fuel or it would have been a lot worse.
UACL 1Q Earnings: A Little EBIT Margin Deterioration Equals A Lot of EBIT Reduction
UACL reported $0.04 Con't 1Q EPS vs. Cons. $0.12, our $0.07 and compared to $0.21 in 1Q:08. On an operating basis the qtr only missed our low end $0.07 estimate by $0.02 with a penny of the miss resulting from higher than expected interest expense, net of a lower tax rate. The operating miss resulted from both weaker than expected 32% rev. decline (vs. our -28% expectation) and 20bp worse EBIT margin deterioration.
SAIA 1Q Earnings: Lowering 09 Estimate Materially Following 1Q Loss
SAIA reported ($0.47) 1Q EPS loss vs our ($0.07), Cons. ($0.06) and a ($0.06) loss in 1Q:08. Rev. dropped -17% y/y vs -5% in 4Q:08 and EBIT swung to a $7.5M loss from a $2M profit in 1Q:08 after growing 36% in 4Q:08. Higher Salaries & Wage expenses accounted for most of the miss vs our forecast.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
CNW 1Q Earnings: Surprisingly Large Loss as LTL Becomes More Aggressive and TL Weakens
CNW reported an ongoing 1Q loss per share of ($0.42) after removing a goodwill impairment charge in TL. This compares to our estimate for a loss of ($0.15) and Cons. ($0.22). The $0.27 miss relative to our expectation was from roughly a ($0.25) miss at LTL and ($0.05) at TL, offset partially by a $0.03 beat combined at Menlo and Other.
YRCW 1Q Earnings: A Larger Than Expected "Kitchen Sink" Into a Worsening LTL Market
YRCW reported a ($2.62) “Continuing” EPS loss for 1Q:09 vs our ($1.72) and Cons ($1.90), which included another $1.71 in charges, for a reported net loss of $4.34/shr. Rev. was down -34% vs. our -32% forecast while a 114% OR was 670bp worse than our est and 1330bp worse y/y. This compares to -18% Rev. decline and 107% OR (825bp deterioration y/y) in 4Q.
UPS 1Q Earnings: Surprisingly Weak Core Operations
UPS reported $0.52 ongoing EPS, missing our and Cons. expectations by 7%, and 13% below the mid-range of its prior guidance prior to a $0.12 charge. The -$0.04 miss relative to our expectations resulted from weaker core Dom. Package (-$0.09), offset partially by better Int'l Package (+$0.05) and Supply Chain (+$0.01), with a penny drag below the line from a higher tax rate.
ODFL 1Q Earnings: Nicest House in a Bad Neighborhood
ODFL reported $0.11 EPS vs. Cons. $0.11 and our $0.09. Rev., EBIT and EPS declined -20%, -52% and -62% vs -6%, -25% and -30% in 4Q:08. While a weak performance in-line with low expectation and the first time in 3 qtrs ODFL failed to beat expectations compared to the other public LTL providers, ODFL's quarter was exceptional.
