Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.A View From the Other Side: A Record Number of Truck and Intermodal Bids are Currently Underway – What are Shippers Experiencing?
Wolfe Research hosted a conference call discussing what shippers are saying about the current state of the economy, their inventory levels and the timing for an expected pick up in volumes. Ed Wolfe moderated this conference call featuring four large truck and intermodal shippers. Other issues discussed include: How is weak demand impacting truck volumes, pricing and fuel surcharges? With an extraordinary level of TL, LTL and Intermodal bid activity taking place in early 2009, how are these bids progressing? What are the trends between moving goods via Truckload, LTL and/or Intermodal?
Inside Freight: Trucking Bid Survey Results – 09 Shaping Up to be an Extraordinary Bid Season
About 32% of our respondents have already completed a TL bid in 1Q:09, while 23% and 24% have completed LTL and Intermodal bids. There have already been more TL bids completed or in progress among our respondents thus far in 2009 than during all of 2008.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 11 Ending March 21: Rail Volumes Less Worse on Easy Holiday Comp
Total Week 11 Rail vols declined 15.6% y/y, less worse than -18.1% and -16.1% the prior 2 weeks. This is relatively improved from -16.5% QTD, but we caution that the rails benefited from an easy comp vs. Good Friday in the year-ago period (Easter not until April this year), so it's tough to read into this week's relative improvement. On the + side, the tough Chinese New Year comp has seemingly eased with a solid 4% sequential increase in intermodal vols vs. last week.
UTIW: Messy Quarter, But Story Intact
UTIW reported arguably $0.17 continuing EPS, below our $0.21 and vs. $0.23 Cons. and $0.24 a year ago. Generally Gross and Net Rev. were worse than expected driven by roughly 12pp of negative currency translation impact into a strengthened dollar relative to the Rand and Euro. Gross Yield expansion and costs were in line with our expectations.
UTIW: Attempting to Grind it Out in a Difficult Environment – UTIW Preview
We estimate UTIW will report F4Q:09 EPS of $0.21 vs. Cons. $0.23 and $0.24 a year ago, prior to a non-reoccurring IT restructuring. Our F4Q estimates reflect Net Rev., EBIT and EPS y/y changes of -7%, -5% and -12% y/y vs. +5%, +11% and +11% y/y in F3Q.
KSU: Downside Pre-Report & Capital Raising
KSU pre-reported that its vols are tracking down 6% QTD in the U.S. and 26% in Mexico, or about -15% in total through 10 weeks of the qtr. Total Rev. is trending even worse due to lower fuel surcharges and a negative mix impact from a shorter length of haul. KSU also expects its OR to fall in the “mid-to-high 80s” in 1Q, materially worse than 81.5% in the year-ago period.
HUBG: Downside Pre-Report – Nothing Surprising
HUBG pre-reported that its 1Q:09 EPS would fall in a range of $0.18-$0.23, excluding $0.03 of arguably one-time charges. This compares with prior Cons. of $0.28 and our prior $0.25 excluding such charges. Our sense is that into deep volume declines, Intermodal costs from the Rails are the largest issue. Truck Brokerage vols are bad but yields and profitability relatively better, while Logistics continues to grow with new customers.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 10 Ending March 14: Rail Volumes Remain Very Weak
Total Week 10 Rail vols declined 18.1% y/y, vs. -16.1% and -19.2% the prior 2 weeks. This is also worse than -16.8% over the past 6 weeks and -16.6% QTD. Despite an easier Chinese New Year comparison, intermodal and overall carloadings remained very weak as there are clearly no signs yet of a recovery in demand.
