Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
Inside Freight: Key Takeaways from Rail Shipper Call
Wolfe Research hosted a conference call with 5 industrial rail shippers and a shippers' attorney. We focused on current demand and pricing trends and received an update on the regulatory and legislative outlook in DC, each from the shippers' angle.
UACL 4Q Earnings: Model Holding Together In Collapsing Flatbed Market
UACL reported on-going 4Q EPS of $0.20 in-line with our $0.21 but below Cons. $0.27. Rev, EBIT, and EPS were +3% (-5% ex-acquisitions), -19%, and -32%, vs 3Q growth of +24% (+16% ex-acquisitions), +7%, and +5%. UACL beat our EBIT forecast after adding back $0.04 for equity security write-downs, but EPS were slightly below due to worse Other Expense ($0.03) due to integration.
On Track, Week 7 Ending February 21: Rail Volumes Deteriorate into Tough Chinese New Year Comp
Total Week 7 Rail vols declined 18.6% y/y, worse than -12.6% and -15.4% the prior 2 weeks and -16.1% QTD. The relative weakening vs. recent trends was driven by a sharp drop-off in intermodal vols due to the timing of the Chinese New Year (1/26 this year vs. 2/7 last year). We expect another week or 2 of tough comps. There was also likely some volatility this week around President's Day.
A View From the Other Side: Rail Shippers' Conference Call
Wolfe Research hosted a conference call discussing what shippers are saying about the current state of the economy and how is it impacting rail volumes and pricing. Ed Wolfe moderated this conference call with five traffic managers for some of the largest customers of the railroads. The call began with an overview by Rail Shippers' attorney Michael McBride discussing the recent STB decision favoring Western Fuels over BNI as well as a look at the rest of the STB's current case docket.
YRCW: YRCW Announces Further Asset Sales
YRCW announced that it has entered into a sale/leaseback deal with Estes Express for an aggregate purchase price of $122M. This is separate from its prior announced and partially closed $150M of sale and leasebacks with North American Terminals Management Inc. (NATMI).
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 6 Ending February 14: Rail Volumes Less Worse
Total Week 6 Rail vols declined 12.6% y/y, less worse than -15.4% and -15.5% the prior 2 weeks and -15.2% the past 6 weeks. While a week doesn’t make a trend, this was the relatively best week for rail vols since early Dec. The recent data points increasingly suggest that the worst of the rail vol. declines may be behind us, although we caution that tough Chinese New Year comps will likely depress intermodal vols over the next several weeks.
BNI: Initial Thoughts on Rate Case Loss
The STB announced that it ruled against BNI in its pending coal rate case vs. Western Fuels. The STB ordered approximately $115M ($0.21/shr) of rate reparations dating back to 4Q:04. The STB also ordered roughly $230M (present value) of total future rate relief through 2024 or about $18M annually ($0.03/shr). We expect BNI will appeal the decision.
The State of the Freight: Fourth Quarter 2008
This 87 page report, which we based on our quarterly survey of over 2,000 shippers, includes over 65 exhibits from over 135 respondents. This survey covers shippers' views on a range of topics, including inventory replenishment, a continued swing in perception of truck capacity, FDX and UPS rate compliance, and the beginning of freight diversion back to Road from Rail.
