Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
ABFS 4Q Earnings: ABFS Has Tough Road Ahead
ABFS reported a 4Q loss per share of ($0.44) vs. our +$0.04 and Cons. +$0.17. Rev. was down 15% or 4pp worse than we projected while its 104% OR was 400bp worse than we expected and deteriorated 850bp y/y. This compares to +2% Rev. growth and a 94.7% OR (70bp deteriorated y/y) in 3Q. We estimate fuel provided about an $0.11 y/y headwind in the qtr.
YRCW 4Q Earnings: Abysmal Earnings, But Is There a Lifeline?
YRCW reported what we consider ongoing ($1.63) EPS prior to ($2.52) of non-cash write downs during 4Q vs our ($0.96) and Cons ($0.66). Rev. was down -18% vs. our -16% forecast while a 107% OR was 360bp worse and 830bp worse y/y. This compares to -3% Rev. decline and 99.9% OR (350bp deteriorated y/y) in 3Q.
JBHT 4Q Earnings: In-Line Report – Estimates Too High
JBHT reported what we view as $0.39 vs. our forecast and Cons. of $0.40. Rev., EBIT and EPS declined -7%, -15% and -12%, each deteriorated sharply from +12%, +11% +23% growth during 3Q. Relative to our expectations, Intermodal and Truck missed by $0.03 and $0.01 while Dedicated was about $0.02 better than we forecasted. Lower other income also added a penny vs. our model.
ODFL 4Q Earnings: In a League of Their Own
ODFL reported $0.30 EPS vs. Cons. and our $0.19. Prior to its Dec. 23rd pre-report guidance was $0.35-$0.40. Rev., EBIT and EPS declined -6%, -25% and -30% vs +15%, +25% and +17% in 3Q:08. Mgmt attributed the beat to a strong finish to 08, but conservative guidance, as is ODFL's custom, also contributed.
On Track, Week 3 Ending January 24: Rail Volumes Less Worse
Total Week 3 Rail vols declined 12.4% y/y, vs. -18.3% and -17.3% the prior 2 weeks and -17.7% the past 6 weeks. While a week doesn't make a trend, comments from rail mgmts over the past week suggest that some production plants are starting to come back online and that vols should become gradually less worse in the near term.
HUBG 4Q Earnings: HUBG Starting to Feel Like a Cost Story Again
HUBG posted 3Q earnings of $0.38, in-line with Cons. and $0.02 above our low-end estimate. Net Rev., EBIT and EPS declined -11%, -10% and -13%, representing a material inflection from +10%, +10% and +7% during 3Q. HUBG beat our estimates on stronger Gross Rev. and a $0.03 bonus accrual reversal, offset modestly by worse gross yields and higher other income expense.
KNX 4Q Earnings: Solid Upside Driven By Fuel
KNX reported $0.19 EPS vs. Cons. $0.17 and our $0.15. Rev, EBIT and EPS changed y/y by -6%, +6% and +6% vs. +16%, +12% and +12% y/y growth in 3Q. Versus our low end expectations Rev. was 700bp less worse and OR 210bp better, with the upside driven by fuel (estimated $0.07 y/y benefit vs. our $0.02 expectation). Higher than expected Comp. expense was offset by lower Insurance and PT.
LSTR 4Q Earnings: 4Q Earnings – A Sign of the Times
LSTR reported $0.47 EPS in 4Q, in-line with our and Cons. estimates and within its lowered guidance of $0.45-$0.50. However, the mix of earnings was surprising with Transportation missing our estimate by over $0.03/share and Insurance beating our expectations by less than $0.03/share.
CHRW 4Q Earnings: Great Model Meets Tough Environment
CHRW reported $0.52 EPS for 4Q, in line with our and Cons. expectations. Net Rev, EBIT and EPS grew 7%, 7% and 6% vs. 12%, 13% and 12% y/y in 3Q. Relative to our expectations Gross Rev. was modestly better, Gross Yields and Net Rev. better and Op. Margins less improved than projected. Non core-Truck ops. including Intermodal, Ocean and Sourcing helped offset weakened truck demand.
