Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.On Track, Week 52 Ending December 27: Rail Volumes End the Year Poorly
Total Week 52 Rail vols declined 24.2% y/y, down further from -18.1% and -11.6% the prior 2 weeks. The Week 52 data include Christmas in both this week and the year-ago period. Total AAR Rail vols were down 8.8% in 4Q vs. -3.6% in 3Q and -3.8% for full year 2008 (the weakest year since 1985). We expect vols to remain very weak through early '09 into weather issues across the country and extended production shutdowns.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
YRCW: YRCW Suspends Tender Offer, Announces Pending Sale-Leaseback
YRCW suspended its previously announced and amended $150M tender offer which expired last night. While our sense is that the deal clearly lacked demand, Mgmt has cited renewed talks with its banks about amending its covenants and liquidity, which could provide a better long term result, with the ability to re-issue the tender offer later if new talks fail.
ODFL: Pre-Report Not Unexpected
ODFL revised its 4Q:08 guidance to a range of $0.18-$0.21 from prior guidance of $0.35-$0.40, and relative to our prior deep recession estimate of $0.15 and prior Cons. $0.31. ODFL now expects tonnage declines of 6%-7% in 4Q compared to the -3% we had expected and +5.7% y/y tonnage growth in 3Q, with an implication that Dec. tonnage is trending down around double digits. Yields gross of fuel are also now supposed to be down slightly y/y compared to +7.2% during 3Q:08.
On Track, Week 51 Ending December 20: Rail Volumes Plummet Further
Total Week 51 Rail vols declined 18.1% y/y, down further from -11.6% and -9.6% the prior 2 weeks. Total Rail vols are now down 7.9% QTD vs. -3.6% last qtr. Rail vols continued to plummet with the economy seemingly reaching a stand-still as we approach year-end. We expect even worse vols next week into weather issues across the country and extended production shutdowns.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 50 Ending December 13: Weakening Economy Overcomes Easier Comps
Total Week 50 Rail vols declined 11.6% y/y, down further from -9.8% on avg. over the past 6 weeks. Total Rail vols are now down 6.9% QTD vs. -3.6% last qtr. Despite easier comps, rail vols continue to deteriorate as the economy is clearly weakening further.
FDX F2Q Earnings: Trying to Align Fixed Costs with Quickly Vanishing Express Volumes
Rev, EBIT and EPS grew 1%, 0% and 3% driven by an estimated roughly $0.50 y/y EPS fuel benefit vs. a 23% EPS decline in F1Q including a $0.18 tailwind from fuel.
R: Downside Pre-Report and Restructuring
R announced 4Q EPS at the low end of its prior $1.03-$1.13 EPS guidance range relative to our prior $1.06 and Cons. $1.08. Mgmt noted general economic softness, likely mostly negatively impacting margins in its short term Rental and auto logistics businesses.
HUBG: Downside Pre-Report
HUBG pre-reported that its 4Q:08 EPS would fall in a range of $0.36-$0.41, down from prior guidance of $0.45-$0.50 and vs. prior Cons. of $0.43. This is inline with our recently reduced, low-end deep recession estimate of $0.37. HUBG's guidance implies an 18% y/y EPS decline in 4Q, down sharply from +7% and +15% the prior 2 qtrs.
