Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 47 Ending November 22: Rail Volumes Turn Positive On Easy Thanksgiving Comp
Total Week 47 Rail vols increased 3.6% y/y, up from -9.6% and -8.1% the past 2 weeks and -4.1% QTD. We believe the y/y improvement was driven entirely by a very easy comp that included Thanksgiving in the year-ago period. Next week's data should be materially worse including Thanksgiving this year and a 2-week analysis will be more balanced. Looking forward, the rails should benefit from easier comps the final 3 weeks of the year.
YRCW: A Tender Offer to Buy Time
YRCW announced a tender offer to purchase up to $100M of its 5% and 3.375% Contingent Convertible (CoCo) Senior Notes, with $387M total outstanding and its 8.5% USF Senior Notes, with $150M outstanding. YRCW expects to purchase about $230M face value of the bonds, implying an avg. purchase price of $0.435 on the dollar.
Inside Freight: What Does Auto Crisis Mean for the Transports?
The U.S. auto industry is hanging on for dear life, and we believe the transports would be negatively impacted beyond the market if the auto bailout does not occur. In this note, we discuss total Auto Rev. exposure for each of our 31 companies under coverage. Generally, the transports have been diversifying away from autos and the Big 3 automakers over the past several years.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 46 Ending November 8: Rail Volumes Continue to Slide
Total Week 46 Rail vols declined 9.6% y/y, down vs. -8.1% and -6.2% the past 2 weeks. This marks the worst y/y week for rail vols since 1Q:02. Vols are now down 5.1% QTD, sharply worse than -2.6% last qtr. All segments deteriorated y/y vs. recent trends, led by material drop-offs in intermodal and metals vols. Y/y comps remain tough for the next couple of weeks before easing the final 3 weeks of the year.
Inside Freight: Sentiment Swings Against the Rails
Our sense is that investors are not only deleveraging out of the rails but also increasingly shorting the group as the rails have held up much better YTD than commodity stocks such as coal and steel, which the rails move. All transports would likely be negatively impacted beyond the market if the auto industry bailout does not occur.
CSX, NSC, and BNI: Export Coal and Grain Interactive doh! Model (Old)
Plug in expectations for C09 export coal or grain volume, yields, and incremental margins, and the model projects the impacts to consolidated EPS for each railroad.
YRCW: YRCW Likely to Buy Some Time As Market Deteriorates
YRCW ended 3Q:08 at 3.2x debt/EBITDA, dangerously close to its year-end credit covenant level of 3.5x, and economic trends have since deteriorated. We believe that YRCW is likely to take further action in the near term to reduce debt and avoid a covenant breach.
Conference Call: 3Q:08 Postview – Upside Earnings Driven by Fuel, Now What?
Wolfe Research hosted a conference call to discuss surprises during 3Q earnings season, trends into November for Air, Ocean, Truck, and Rails, and preliminary October Shipper Survey results. What drove 3Q earnings upside across the group? Which stocks are discounting a material 2009 recession and which ones are not? How did forward expectations change as a result of 3Q reports and guidance? What was the impact of fuel in 3Q? And finally we presented our long and short ideas to make money over the next three to six months and next five years.
