Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.Presidential Preview – What Does the Election Mean for the Transports?
In this note, we begin with a look at historical transport stock performance under the past 7 presidential terms dating back to 1980. We also look at the major transportation/infrastructure issues facing the next President, including highway reauthorization, rail re-regulation vs. infrastructure investment, clean coal regulations, NAFTA and labor-related issues. We also discuss what we know about the two Presidential candidates' transportation records and platforms.
Friday Fright!
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week Ending 43 October 25: Rail Volumes Worsen
Total Week 43 Rail vols declined 4.5% y/y, down vs. -4.3% and -1.7% the past 2 weeks. This marks another step down from -3.9% over the past 6 weeks and -2.3% YTD. The weakening overall economy and persistently weak grain vols continue to work against the rails.
Inside Freight: Presidential Preview – What Does the Election Mean for the Transports?
In this note, we begin with a look at historical transport stock performance under the past 7 presidential terms dating back to 1980. We also look at the major transportation/infrastructure issues facing the next President, including highway reauthorization, rail re-regulation vs. infrastructure investment, clean coal regulations, NAFTA and labor-related issues. We also discuss what we know about the two Presidential candidates' transportation records and platforms.
Repositioning Transports for a Recession – Time to Own Stocks Is Approaching Again
Our 60-page report presents our annual repositioning of the transport stocks, including moving our target prices from year-end 2008 to 2009, our revised transport thesis for making money in the sector and our top picks. We recently materially reduced our 2009 and 2010 EPS forecasts based recession assumptions for 2009 with a recovery during 2010. In this report, we highlight which transport stocks are most likely to outperform in a weak demand, lower fuel environment and which stocks we believe have more than a deep recession already priced in, based on historical average and peak and trough valuation. We believe the transports are likely to outperform the market during the impending recession as they benefit from declining fuel costs and lagging surcharges, relatively easy comparisons after two years of down freight volumes, mostly U.S. exposure, relatively few credit issues and potential operating leverage into an eventual recovery (which can also continue to swing against them) as early cyclicals. For a hard copy of the report, contact info@WolfeResearch with your mailing address.
KSU 3Q Earnings: Downside Quarter; Reducing 4Q Estimates
KSU reported 3Q EPS of $0.52, well below Cons. of $0.60 and our recently reduced $0.59. KSU was hurt in the quarter by $0.05 from foreign exchange losses (not in our model) and $0.07 from Hurricanes Ike and Gustav. Rev., EBIT and EPS grew by 11%, 13% and 9%, each below our expectations and decelerated from 14%, 26% and 50% y/y growth during 2Q.
CP 3Q Earnings: Upside Report But We Remain on the Sidelines
CP reported ongoing 3Q EPS of $1.16, solidly above Cons. $1.04 and our $1.07. Rev., EBIT and EPS changed by +6.5%, -6% and -2% (CAD), each materially improved from +0%, -18% and -13% y/y during 2Q. This was also above our expectations of +6%, -12% and -9%. Note that this excludes +$0.04 from FX gains on L/T debt and ($0.12) of write-downs on asset-backed commercial paper.
PACR 3Q Earnings: Strong 3Q Beat, But Extremely Disappointing Guidance Driven By Fuel
PACR reported ongoing EPS of $0.49 compared to Cons. $0.42 and our $0.44. Gross Rev., EBIT and EPS grew by 14%, 12% and 15%, accelerated from 9%, 8% and 15% y/y growth in 2Q. We suspect a material y/y net fuel benefit was the driver of the upside report, but mgmt gave little guidance on fuel other than it would become a major relative headwind in 4Q. Cash flow remained solid.
TNT 3Q Earnings: Weak 3Q Earnings As Europe Slides
TNT reported 3Q EPS of Euro 0.31 compared with Cons. Euro 0.42 and our Euro 0.38. TNT had previously reported on Oct. 16th that European Express trends had materially weakened in Sept and Oct., w/o providing an earnings range at that time. Rev., EBIT and EPS changed y/y by +1%, -18% and -27% in 3Q decelerated from +4%, -2% and -7% y/y in 2Q.
SAIA 3Q Earnings: Upgrading to Peer Perform
SAIA reported $0.21 3Q EPS vs Cons $0.19 and our $0.22. Rev., EBIT and EPS changed +11%, -31% and -41% compared to +9%, -25% and -30% y/y during 2Q. Relative to our high end estimate Rev. growth driven by fuel surcharge was higher while margin slightly worse than our projection.
