Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.UTIW: Reflections on Management Meetings
Our sense is that F3Q is moving forward with few surprises despite decelerating global demand. Mgmt's guidance had provided for a slow down in demand, solid air and ocean gross yield improvement, and operating margin improvement driven by its cost savings initiatives. Our sense is there is nothing yet surprising and plans remain on track.
The Wolfe Monthly Macro Watch: Lack of a Peak Freight Season, Likely Means a Grinch of a Christmas
The Wolfe Monthly Macro Watch summarizes the most recently available Air, Ocean, Rail & Truck freight statistics. Each month, we track 14 series of domestic and international freight data.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 38 Ending September 20: Worst Week For Rail Volumes Since 2002
Total Week 38 Rail vols declined 8.3% y/y, down materially from -4.1% the past 2 weeks. This is the worst week of y/y vols for the rails since the West Coast port shutdowns in the Fall of 2002. Vols are now down 2.5% QTD, vs. -2.4% in 2Q. Vols have deteriorated sharply following the hurricanes, with the biggest impact on UNP and KSU followed by BNI and CSX.
NSC: NSC Well Positioned for 3Q and Beyond
NSC's vols are tracking down about 1% in 3Q, improved from -2.1% last qtr. and -3.3% on avg. the past 7 qtrs. Excluding a 31% drop in lower-margin auto vols, NSC's vols would be trending up 1% in 3Q. NSC's vols were the 1st to turn negative in the U.S. and we expect them to be 1st to turn positive.
HUBG: Reflections from Meetings with Management
Despite signs of another step down recently in freight demand and flat pricing, HUBG mgmt seemed confident to us, as it continues to benefit from new account signings in 1Q, a revamped sales force, improved productivity and a strong balance sheet. We have conviction in our 7% and 9% above Cons. 3Q:08 and C09 EPS forecasts.
CSX: Hurricane Impact Bigger Than Expected
Yesterday evening, CSX announced that the combined impact of Hurricanes Ike and Gustav would reduce 3Q EPS by $0.06-$0.08. This includes a non-cash write down for damaged track in the Gulf, as well as lost chemicals business out of Houston and some re-rerouting and clean-up costs. The impact from the hurricanes was bigger than expected as CSX did not anticipate lost chemicals business out of Houston following Ike.
WERN: Reflections on Management Meetings
Last week we met with senior mgmt at WERN, a high-quality TL and increasingly logistics' provider. The truck vol. and pricing environment has softened during 3Q compared to the end of 2Q, but WERN remains well positioned with a reduced fleet, tight cost control and increased focus on its intermodal, brokerage, forwarding and Dedicated businesses.
UNP: Upside Pre-Report; Reflections From Meetings With Management
Last night, UNP pre-reported 3Q EPS in a range of $1.28-$1.33, well above prior guidance of $1.10-$1.20 and prior Cons. of $1.21. UNP will benefit by about $0.10 from declining fuel prices in 3Q, offset by a $0.10 reduction related to Hurricanes Ike and Gustav. Core earnings also continue to benefit from ongoing efficiency gains and a favorable business mix.
Inside Freight: What Does Tighter Credit Mean for Transports?
Generally we see little direct material exposure to the transport sector from failed financial institutions or increasingly tight or expensive financing. Overall the balance sheets of the 31 public transport companies that we cover are solid, and they have long-lived, but relatively liquid assets (railcars, trucks and planes) that can serve to collateralize funding, if necessary.
