Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 34 Ending August 23: Rail Volumes Remain Negative
Total Week 34 Rail vols declined 1.6% y/y, in-line with the average of the past two weeks which were -0.8% and -2.3%. Vols are now down 1.3% QTD, improved vs. -2.4% in 2Q. Still, rail vols remain muted into continued soft import/consumer demand and more recently, weak grain into tough comps and low stockpiles.
LSTR Mid 3Q Update: Tweaking Down Estimates and TP Into Weakening Demand
LSTR hosted its scheduled mid-qtr update cc yesterday. Revs have tracked up double digits y/y despite modestly decreased total loads. Pricing and fuel remained strong y/y accounting for the difference. Mgmt guided to 3Q rev growth of 10-13% (arguably up from previous guidance of high single to low double digits growth) following 10% y/y growth in 2Q:08, but below our prior high-end 3Q estimate of 16%.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 33 Ending August 16: Rail Volumes Less Worse
Total Week 33 Rail vols declined 0.8% y/y, relatively improved vs. -2.3% and -2.2% in the prior 2 weeks. Vols are now down 1.3% QTD vs. -2.4% in 2Q. Still, rail vols remain muted into continued soft import/consumer demand and more recently, weak grain into tough comps and low stockpiles.
The State of the Freight: Second Quarter 2008
This 90 page report, which we based on our quarterly survey of over 2,000 shippers, includes over 65 exhibits from over 180 respondents. This survey covers shippers' views on a range of topics, including the continuing freight diversion back to Rail from Road, tighter fuel charge compliance, and the deterioration of DHL service since its announced U.S. Domestic restructuring in late May.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 32 Ending August 9: Rail Volumes Remain Weak
Total Week 32 vols declined 2.3% y/y, vs. -2.2% and -3.3% in the prior 2 weeks. Vols are now down 1.4% QTD vs. -2.4% in 2Q. Rail vols remain weak into continued soft import/consumer demand and more recently, weak grain into tough comps and low stockpiles.
Inside Freight: YRCW CFO Leaves for CNW, EXPD 10-Q, L.A. Long Beach Port Volumes, USDA Grain
CNW announced it had hired Steve Bruffett as CFO. We believe the addition of Bruffett strengthens CNW's mgmt team. Conversely, we view Bruffet's move from YRCW with caution given our concerns with YRCW's charge-riddled income statements the past several years and its second CFO departure in less than a year. YRCW's Corp, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, Paul Liljegren, was appointed interim CFO.
EXPD: Upgrading From Peer to Outperform: Great Long-Term Opportunity
We believe EXPD's long-term growth, cash flow and high-return model remains intact and that recent concerns about a slowing global economy are more than in the stock. We also believe its non-asset model is well positioned to relatively outperform, like past downturns, into weaker global vols, offset to some degree by likely improving Ocean and, to a lesser extent, Air Gross Yields.
