Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.The Wolfe Monthly Macro Watch: April and May Demand Improved But Warning Signs for June Emerging
This monthly report summarizes the most recently available Air, Ocean, Rail, and Truck freight statistics. We track thirteen series of domestic and international freight data.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 25 Ending June 21: Rail Volumes Remain Weakened By Midwest Floods
Total week 25 rail vols were down 6.9% y/y, another step down from -6.0% and 2.0% in the prior 2 weeks as the rails continue to feel material pressure from severe flooding in the Midwest. However water levels have begun cresting and we expect vols to begin improving over the next couple of weeks. Vols are now down 2.3% QTD vs. -1.6% in 1Q and -2.3% during C07.
Plaintiffs' Attorney Representing Ground Contractors in Class Action Suits Against FedEx Call Replay
On June 26th, Wolfe Research hosted a conference call with Lynn Faris of Leonard Carder, the lead plaintiffs' attorney representing Owner Operators against FDX in several class-action suits.
Inside Freight: CSX Proxy Vote, UTIW, LSTR, Midwest Floods, TNT, FDX, PACR, EXPD and UTIW, Rail Labor Pact, KSU, CNW
CSX stated yesterday afternoon that results of the proxy vote with TCI/3G were too close to call and the annual meeting will reconvene on July 25th. TCI/3G separately announced that they believe they have won 4 of the 5 contested Board seats (all nominees other than Gary Wilson). We also believe TCI/3G won their shareholder proposal to call special meetings. News of the TCI/3G win (but not complete slate) should be a relief for the stock in our view. CSX also announced last night that the Board approved a 22% increase in its qtly dividend to $0.22, yielding 1.4% (vs. 1.5% for the other Class1 Rails).
UPS: Pre-Report – Not Unexpected, But Not Pretty Either
UPS reported expected 2Q EPS of $0.83-$0.88 compared to prev. guidance of $0.97-$1.04 and our and prior Cons. of $1.01 and $0.99. UPS blamed the miss on spiking fuel costs, weakened Dom. Package vols since April, and weakened Int'l Export vols as a result of weak U.S. Demand. SCS turnaround remains on-track and above plan.
CSX: Proxy Preview – Compromise Seems Best for Shareholders
CSX is scheduled to host its annual shareholders' meeting this Wednesday. TCI/3G have proposed a slate of directors opposed by CSX. In this note, we provide some background on the proxy battle and offer some insight on a range of potential outcomes.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 24 Ending June 14: Rail Volumes Deteriorate on Midwest Floods
Week 24 vols were down 6.0% y/y, down sharply from -2.0% and -3.2% in the prior 2 weeks. The deterioration was driven primarily by the severe storms and flooding in the Midwest. We expect vols to remain weak over the next couple of weeks before rebounding in 3Q. Vols are now down 1.9% QTD vs. -1.6% in 1Q and -2.3% during C07.
FDX: Is There More Amiss Than the Economy and Fuel?
FDX reported at the low end of its recent pre-report guidance, despite a $0.03 benefit from lower than normal Other Expense. A majority of the roughly $0.07 operating EBIT below our expectation resulted from weaker than expected Ground profitability.
