Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact to request our PDF decryption plug-in.Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team’s recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 21 Ending May 24: Rail Volumes Deteriorate
Week 21 vols were down 2.5% y/y, deteriorated vs. -1.5% and +0.9% in the prior 2 weeks. Vols are now down 1.1% QTD, improved vs. -1.7% in 1Q and -2.3% during C07. Demand remains mixed into a bipolar freight economy, with strong export and commodity demand offset by weak import and consumer trends.
UPS: Unexpected Extra Benefit from DHL Restructuring
Yesterday morning DHL's parent Deutsche Post announced its much anticipated plan for stemming its $1B in annual losses in the Americas. The plan includes replacing its own airplanes in its domestic air express business with UPS's network and shutting down 34% of its air/ground network infrastructure and using the USPS to deliver more of its Ground business.
Wolfe Research's May 28th Transportation Conference Re-cap Call Replay
Ed hosted a conference call re-capping our Wolfe Research Transportation Conference. On the call he gave the top ten takeaways from the conference and then a panel by panel summary of the conference, as well as some comments on his upgrades of LSTR and UACL based upon the trend of tightening flat bed truck capacity noted throughout the conference. Register here to receive replay info and accompanying note.
Following Freight: Key Takeaways From Our Transport Conference
Our sense is that March's dip in freight was likely a reflection of the timing of Easter. April and May demand has generally improved y/y compared to March trends, across modes. While freight demand is generally not great, it is not worsening; some pockets are strong and comparisons remain easy.
UACL: Upgrading to Outperform on Firming Flatbed Fundamentals
We have become convinced that flatbed truck pricing is currently improving (unlike dry van truck were rates are still down y-o-y) as a result of both strong demand and tight supply. UACL has by far the highest exposure to flatbed of any public carrier we cover (roughly 62% of estimated total rev for C08). We have also upgraded LSTR to OP today, which is next with about 30% of its rev. generated from flatbed.
LSTR: Upgrading to Outperform: Improving Demand and Pricing for Flatbed
Both carriers and shippers at our conference agreed that flatbed demand and pricing has tightened materially since April. LSTR has seen improved revenue trends the past 2 qtrs. mostly from its brokerage business and we now expect its lagging BCO business to also show both rev. and profitability improvement going forward. Flatbed accounts for an estimated 30% of LSTR's total truck rev. (2nd most of the public providers after UACL which we also upgraded today). We also believe fuel has little net impact to LSTR.
Friday Freight
This weekly report summarizes the most recent views and research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) three to five snippets or key takeaways from our team's recent channel checks with traffic managers about their experiences with purchasing, competition, and service from Airfreight and Logistics, Rail, and Truck capacity providers; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight and logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
On Track, Week 20 Ending May 17: Rail Volumes Remain Under Pressure
Week 20 vols were down 1.5% y/y, vs. +0.9% and -2.6% in the prior 2 weeks. Vols are now down 1.0% QTD, improved vs. -1.7% in 1Q and -2.3% during C07. Demand remains mixed into a bipolar freight economy (4 commodity groups of strength and 4 of weakness).
The State of the Freight: First Quarter 2008
This 90 page report, which we based on our quarterly survey of over 1,000 shippers, includes over 65 exhibits from over 150 respondents. This survey covers shippers’ views on a range of topics, including the recent freight diversion back to Rail from Road, how spiking fuel costs affect shippers’ decisions, and how the USPS market-based pricing will impact the Parcel carriers.
