Friday, May 18th, 2012
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
Filed under: Airfreight & Logistics, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads, Trucking
Tags: CNI, CP, CSX, EXPD, FDX, FridayFreight, GWR, KSU, NSC, RA, WAB
Friday, May 18th, 2012
Total Week 19 rail vols decreased 0.2% y/y, down from +1.9% and +2.5% the prior 2 weeks. After 3 straight weeks of positive y/y vols, vols inflected negative on weaker y/y coal vols and slower intermodal growth. Excluding coal, rail vols grew 3.6% y/y, also decelerated from +4.8% and +7.2% the last 2 weeks.
Filed under: Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads
Tags: CNI, CP, CSX, GWR, KSU, OnTrack, RA, UNP, WAB
Friday, May 18th, 2012
This 70-page report analyzes the responses from over 110 traffic managers that filled out our second-quarter survey during April and early May. Within the report, we discuss in detail: pricing, volume, service and capacity trends across all modes of freight transportation. The report looks at inventory restocking trends and shippers’ expectations for targeted inventory levels.
Filed under: Airfreight & Logistics, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads, Trucking
Tags: Reports, ShipperSurvey
Tuesday, May 15th, 2012
Ed Wolfe and Scott Group hosted this 45 minute conference call. Key topics on the call include: Trends our of 1Q; What Are Our Surveys Saying About Capacity?; Have Rail Coal Volumes Bottomed in 2Q; Why Were Truck Reports Weaker Than Expected in 1Q?; CHRW & EXPD – Should Investors Look at Either at This Stage of the Cycle?; and Our Favorite Stocks.
Filed under: Airfreight & Logistics, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Highlights, Railroads, Trucking
Tags: Audio, ConferenceCall
Tuesday, May 15th, 2012
We are raising our weighting on the rails again because we see less risk of an earnings miss, the rails are handling historically weak domestic coal vols better than we envisioned, we believe we are closer to a bottom for coal sentiment, and the U.S. Big 3 Public Rails are trading towards the bottom of historical ranges. In recent weeks a bullish USDA grain forecast and plummeting diesel prices also add to the near-term story. We view the sector’s pullback with the market since April 2nd as a great opportunity to increase exposure in the transport sector. The freight transports are over 85% domestic and import driven, with little int’l or export exposure. As a result, the sector has grown y/y earnings well above the market in both 4Q and 1Q. Valuations across the transports remain compelling as forward expectations out of strong 1Q beats remain muted, so the potential for the group to continue to beat expectations continues.
Filed under: Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads
Tags: CNI, CP, CSX, KSU, RA, UNP, WAB
Friday, May 11th, 2012
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
Filed under: Airfreight & Logistics, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads, Trucking
Tags: FDX, KNX, RA, SAIA, SWFT, TNTE, UPS
Friday, May 11th, 2012
The USDA released its initial grain production and export forecasts for the upcoming 2012-13 crop year. Total corn, wheat and soybean (the 3 major crops moved by the rails) production is expected to increase 16% y/y after dropping 3% and 4% the prior 2 years. The USDA also expects total exports for these 3 crops to increase 13% y/y, a reversal from the 13% decline in 2011. This seems positive for rail grain volumes starting in late 3Q. Among the public U.S. Class I rails, UNP has the most total grain/agriculture exposure at 17% of total revenue, well above CSX and NSC at around 9%.
Filed under: Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads
Tags: CNI, CP, CSX, NSC, RA, UNP
Wednesday, May 9th, 2012
KNX hosted an Analyst Day in Phoenix which included an informational dive into its business segments. The 2 key themes were its ability to grow profitability through leveraging its decentralized network and cross-selling its products. Mgmt’s intensity remains apparent. We believe we are entering a 5+ year period of large carriers taking share from small carriers into tight capacity, old equipment and cash constraints for smaller carriers. We believe KNX should see the best growth of the large carriers and it’s the first to focus on growing its fleet again. At 17x forward P/E currently after growing EPS 50% y/y in 1Q:12, we believe investors should buy KNX today as it starts to grow its fleet and improve its OR again.
Filed under: Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Trucking
Tags: KNX
Wednesday, May 9th, 2012
Swift held an Analyst Day in Phoenix, which was mostly informational. SWFT announced its target to grow EPS 15% annually the next 5 years, improve Returns on Net Assets by 1pp per year, and reduce its Debt/EBITDA from over 3x currently to 1.5x by C17. SWFT also provided C12 guidance to grow EPS in excess of 20% (implying $0.95+), in line with our unchanged $0.95 estimate and prior Cons. of $0.97. SWFT has come a long way since going private in C07 and we believe it can grow revenue low double-digits the next several years, driven by Intermodal, Dedicated and Mexico. Its focus on process and maximizing productivity is also clear and we expect it to continue to lower its Truck OR to the low 80% range over time. At 11x forward P/E, we see limited downside. We reiterate our Outperform rating.
Filed under: Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Trucking
Tags: SWFT
Friday, May 4th, 2012
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
Filed under: Airfreight & Logistics, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads, Trucking
Tags: AAWW, CNW, EXPD, FridayFreight, GWR, RRTS, SAIA, YRCW